Turkey has hinted it may reconsider its stance on nuclear weapons if a regional arms race begins, with officials warning that shifting alliances and security doubts could reshape Ankara’s long-standing policy.
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Turkey’s foreign minister has sparked fresh debate across the Middle East and Europe after suggesting Ankara could reconsider its long-standing opposition to nuclear weapons if the regional balance of power changes.
In an interview with CNN Turk on February 9, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that a nuclear arms race in the region could eventually force Turkey to review its position, though he stopped short of declaring any intention to pursue nuclear capability.
“We do not want dramatic changes that alter the regional balance,” Fidan said.
“But if others interpret developments differently and move toward nuclear weapons, we might inevitably have to join that same race.”
He declined repeated questions on whether Turkey should acquire nuclear weapons, saying any decision would depend on broader strategic considerations.
Security doubts reshape Ankara’s thinking
For decades, Turkey relied on NATO’s nuclear umbrella, with US nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik Air Base serving as a deterrent during and after the Cold War.
But confidence in that arrangement appears to be weakening.
Analysts say Ankara has grown uneasy over Washington’s gradual disengagement from the Middle East and renewed uncertainty about NATO’s future security guarantees. Regional conflicts and the perceived deterrence enjoyed by nuclear-armed states have intensified those concerns.
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, while Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a central security worry for Turkey and Gulf states alike.
Public opinion shifting
Turkey currently has no active military nuclear program and has not announced plans to build one. However, domestic sentiment appears to be evolving.
Surveys and political debate increasingly show support for an independent nuclear deterrent, particularly if regional rivals develop or acquire nuclear capabilities.
Officials insist Ankara still prefers diplomatic solutions, including a regional security framework rather than an arms race. Yet experts warn the strategic environment may eventually pressure future governments toward tougher decisions.
Wider regional implications
The discussion reflects broader anxiety across the region. Saudi Arabia has reportedly explored security guarantees through ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, while European countries are debating extended nuclear protection amid shifting alliances.
For now, Turkey’s position remains unchanged — but Fidan’s remarks signal that Ankara wants rivals to understand one message clearly:
If nuclear weapons spread in the region, Turkey may not stay on the sidelines forever.
